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GAVEL &
CHRONICLE

LAW · COURTS · REPUBLIC

GAVEL & CHRONICLE · SCOTUS DOCKET ANALYSIS

PENDING BEFORE THE COURT

3 cases pending before the Supreme Court — October Term 2026 matters argued, set for argument, or newly granted — analyzed through the Unified Merit Logic framework: a weighted signal array measuring justiciability, constitutional anchor, circuit conflict, national significance, and lower-court error.

■ GATE VARIABLE (J, F) — must be > 0 for any merit■ WEIGHTED VARIABLE (S, C, I) — drives cert probability● PETITIONER WINS● RESPONDENT WINS

QUESTION PRESENTED

(1) Whether federal law precludes state-law claims for injuries allegedly caused by interstate and international greenhouse-gas emissions; and (2) whether the Court has statutory and Article III jurisdiction to hear the case (question added by the Court).

PETITIONER

Suncor Energy Inc. (with ExxonMobil)

RESPONDENT

Bd. of County Comm'rs of Boulder County; City of Boulder

THE CASE

Boulder County and the City of Boulder sued fossil-fuel producers in Colorado state court (2018) for state-law torts — nuisance, trespass, unjust enrichment, conspiracy — over climate harms. State courts rejected the defendants' preemption defenses. The Court granted cert and directed briefing on its own jurisdiction.

WHY IT MATTERS

Could decide whether the dozens of state and municipal climate-damages suits against energy companies are preempted by federal law — potentially dispositive for the entire wave of climate litigation.

APPLICABLE LAW

Clean Air Act, 42 U.S.C. § 7401 et seq.

Federal-common-law / foreign-affairs preemption

U.S. Const. art. III, § 2 (jurisdiction)

MERIT PROFILE — SIGNAL ARRAY

WEIGHTED VARIABLES

J JUSTICIABILITY

GATE0.85

F FEDERAL QUESTION

GATE1.00

S CIRCUIT SPLIT

×0.450.85

C SIGNIFICANCE

×0.400.80

I ERROR CORRECTION

×0.150.78

MERIT SIGNAL — M = (J × F) × [S·0.45 + C·0.40 + I·0.15]

= (0.85 × 1.00) × [0.85·0.45 + 0.80·0.40 + 0.78·0.15]
= 0.85 × [0.383 + 0.320 + 0.117]

69.7%

CERT MERIT INDEX

VOTE PREDICTION — PROJECTED COURT ALIGNMENT

5-3→ SUNCORCONFIDENCE: 52%

ROBS

THOM

ALIT

SOTO

KAGA

GORS

KAVA

BARR

JACK

● MAJORITY — 5 VOTES○ DISSENT — 4 VOTES

The Court's sua sponte jurisdiction question signals skepticism of the suits' posture; AEP and Ouellette favor preemption or dismissal. Justice Alito's Sept. 28, 2026 recusal leaves eight justices: a single defection produces a 4-4 split that affirms the Colorado Supreme Court without national precedent. That deadlock risk and the added jurisdictional question lower the gate (J) and overall confidence.

KEY PRECEDENT

American Electric Power Co. v. Connecticut2011

Clean Air Act displaces federal-common-law nuisance claims for GHG emissions.

Int'l Paper Co. v. Ouellette1987

Source-state law governs cross-border pollution; supplies the preemption framework.

Native Village of Kivalina v. ExxonMobil2012

Displacement of federal climate-damages claims (9th Cir. background).

QUESTION PRESENTED

Whether proving lack of 'general applicability' under Employment Division v. Smith requires unfettered discretion or categorical secular exemptions, and whether Carson v. Makin displaces Smith only where the government explicitly excludes religious institutions.

PETITIONER

St. Mary Catholic Parish et al. (Archdiocese of Denver)

RESPONDENT

Lisa Roy, Exec. Dir., Colo. Dep't of Early Childhood

THE CASE

Colorado's Universal Preschool Program funds private providers who sign a nondiscrimination agreement barring exclusion based on sexual orientation or gender identity. Catholic parishes declined to sign, citing religious admissions criteria. The district court denied an injunction and the Tenth Circuit affirmed, finding the requirement neutral and generally applicable.

WHY IT MATTERS

Could reshape the 'general applicability' test from Smith and the reach of Carson v. Makin for religious providers in public benefit programs.

APPLICABLE LAW

U.S. Const. amend. I (Free Exercise Clause)

U.S. Const. amend. XIV (incorporation)

MERIT PROFILE — SIGNAL ARRAY

WEIGHTED VARIABLES

J JUSTICIABILITY

GATE1.00

F FEDERAL QUESTION

GATE1.00

S CIRCUIT SPLIT

×0.450.72

C SIGNIFICANCE

×0.400.85

I ERROR CORRECTION

×0.150.70

MERIT SIGNAL — M = (J × F) × [S·0.45 + C·0.40 + I·0.15]

= (1.00 × 1.00) × [0.72·0.45 + 0.85·0.40 + 0.70·0.15]
= 1.00 × [0.324 + 0.340 + 0.105]

76.9%

CERT MERIT INDEX

VOTE PREDICTION — PROJECTED COURT ALIGNMENT

6-3→ ST. MARY (PARISHES)CONFIDENCE: 64%

ROBS

THOM

ALIT

SOTO

KAGA

GORS

KAVA

BARR

JACK

● MAJORITY — 6 VOTES○ DISSENT — 3 VOTES

The Fulton–Carson–Mahmoud trajectory favors religious claimants and treats discretionary or non-comparable secular carve-outs as defeating general applicability. The open question is breadth — whether the Court narrows Smith further or decides on the program's specific design.

KEY PRECEDENT

Employment Div. v. Smith1990

Neutral, generally applicable laws need not yield to religious objections.

Carson v. Makin2022

States cannot exclude religious schools from generally available tuition-aid programs.

Fulton v. City of Philadelphia2021

Discretionary exemption schemes are not 'generally applicable,' triggering strict scrutiny.

QUESTION PRESENTED

Whether a defendant charged with a serious felony has a Sixth and Fourteenth Amendment right to a twelve-person jury, and whether Williams v. Florida (1970) should be overruled.

PETITIONER

Hamed Kian

RESPONDENT

State of Florida

THE CASE

Kian was convicted by a six-person jury of practicing with a suspended license. Florida and five other states use six-person juries for non-capital criminal cases. He argues the Sixth Amendment requires twelve jurors and that Williams v. Florida was wrongly decided.

WHY IT MATTERS

Could overturn 55-year-old precedent and require twelve-person juries nationwide, upending the criminal-justice systems of states that permit smaller panels.

APPLICABLE LAW

U.S. Const. amend. VI (jury trial)

U.S. Const. amend. XIV (incorporation)

MERIT PROFILE — SIGNAL ARRAY

WEIGHTED VARIABLES

J JUSTICIABILITY

GATE1.00

F FEDERAL QUESTION

GATE1.00

S CIRCUIT SPLIT

×0.450.80

C SIGNIFICANCE

×0.400.75

I ERROR CORRECTION

×0.150.65

MERIT SIGNAL — M = (J × F) × [S·0.45 + C·0.40 + I·0.15]

= (1.00 × 1.00) × [0.80·0.45 + 0.75·0.40 + 0.65·0.15]
= 1.00 × [0.360 + 0.300 + 0.098]

75.8%

CERT MERIT INDEX

VOTE PREDICTION — PROJECTED COURT ALIGNMENT

5-4→ KIANCONFIDENCE: 50%

ROBS

THOM

ALIT

SOTO

KAGA

GORS

KAVA

BARR

JACK

● MAJORITY — 5 VOTES○ DISSENT — 4 VOTES

Genuine toss-up. Ramos's history-and-tradition method cuts against Williams's functionalist reasoning, and the grant of an IFP petition signals appetite to revisit it — but overturning six-state jury systems is a heavy stare decisis lift. Direction is uncertain; confidence is deliberately at the coin-flip line.

KEY PRECEDENT

Williams v. Florida1970

Upheld six-person juries in non-capital cases — the precedent under attack.

Ballew v. Georgia1978

Five-person juries unconstitutional, suggesting a numerical floor.

Ramos v. Louisiana2020

Sixth Amendment requires unanimity; revived scrutiny of jury-feature precedents and stare decisis.

GAVEL & CHRONICLE · DISPOSITION RECORD

DECIDED — ARCHIVE

11 cases ruled on across 2 terms, newest first, each showing the projection versus the actual judgment — vote, author, full opinion lineup, holdings, and aftermath. Projection scorecard: 6 correct, 3 side-correct, 2 missed.

OCTOBER TERM 2025

OCTOBER TERM 2024

ANALYSIS NOTE — Merit scores are computed using the Unified Merit Logic formula. Vote predictions reflect probabilistic assessment based on court composition and oral-argument signals; they are analytical projections, not forecasts. Decided-case records (date, vote, author, lineup, holding) are drawn from the Court's slip opinions and official reporter citations; pending OT2026 matters marked AWAITING DECISION may be ruled at any time before the end-of-term window; ruled cases move to the archive with their aftermath. Gavel & Chronicle editorial content is independent of any party to these proceedings.